Monday, March 19, 2012

Explaining Importance to End Users

Hello Experts at Microsoft.

I am thinking of an easy way to explain importance to Marketers without going into the math. This is what i came up with so far. Does this sound correct to you guys?

Reasoning:

IMPORTANCE = Log(Improvement)

Improvement=P(X&Y)/(P(x)*P(y))

Improvement= (Probability 2 products are sold together)/(random chance 2 products are sold together)

If the (Probability 2 products are sold together) = (random chance 2 products are sold together) then Improvement=1. The log(1) = 0

IMPORTANCE SCORE
-2 to -1 10 to 100 times less likely than random chance
-1 to 0 0 to 10 times less likely than random chance
0 to 1 0 to 10 times more likely than random chance
1 to 2 10 to 100 times more likely than random chance
2 to 3 100 to 1000 times more likely than random chance
3 to 4 1000 to 10000 times more likely than random chance
4 to 5 10000 to 100000 times more likely than random chance
5 to 6 100000 to 1000000 times more likely than random chance
6 to 7 1000000 to 10000000 times more likely than random chance

I should build a set of tables that contain a set o values with your parameters, all inserted in Excel and I should make some charts on these tables.

And , visually, I should have the next dialogues (monologues):

"See this chart, if the Improvement grow up the Importance is as you see " etc...

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